Is the NL Central a Weak Division?

With the Brewers impressive 24-10 start to the season, there has been quite a bit of excitement about the team. Nationally, there has still been some skepticism. Now, when you haven't had a winning season in 15 years, and haven't made the postseason in 25, some of that has to be expected. What has surprised me is the seemingly widespread perception that the National League Central is a weak division. Could this really be true? I didn't think so. After all, this is the division with the defending world champions, the team with the best record in baseball, the biggest off-season free agent spenders, and a team that was in the World Series only two years ago.

The Cardinals, Cubs, Astros and Brewers were all considered to be playoff contenders. The Reds and Pirates have a few more holes, but most people expected them to be competitive as well. That doesn't sound like a weak division, but things don't always play out like they should. So, how have they performed on the field? Here are the current division standings, with each team's record against other divisions:

vs NL East vs NL West
Milwaukee
5-1
2-1
Chicago
4-1
1-1
Houston
3-2
0-0
Pittsburgh
0-0
1-3
St. Louis
0-3
2-3
Cincinnati
1-2
2-4

Not too many games have been played yet, but things look about where I would expect them. The top teams are over .500 and the bottom teams are a bit under .500. Combined, this gives us a 21-21 record in non-divisional games. Not really much of a sample, but .500 record against teams from other, supposedly stronger divisions isn't too bad. Let's see how the NL Central's non-divisional record stacks up with the rest of baseball:

Division W L Winning %
NL West 32 27
.542
AL Central 48 42
.533
NL Central 21 21
.500
AL East 47 49
.490
AL West 38 42
.475
NL East 28 33
.459

So, if you go purely by wins and losses (and why not?), the NL Central is right in the middle. Unlike the divisions behind them in these standings, the NL Central does not have a terrible team dragging them down. The current last-place team, Cincinnati, is tied with Colorado for the best record of any last-place team.

I'll admit that it's still early in the season, but so far, the teams of the NL Central as a whole have been better than a lot of people give them credit for. The Brewers probably won't be a .700 team all season, but the Cardinals haven't played their best yet, the Cubs are just starting to play up to their potential, and the Astros will probably contend for a playoff spot, just as they have for the past 6 years.

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