colin's intertube

With the Brewers impressive 24-10 start to the season, there has been quite a bit of excitement about the team. Nationally, there has still been some skepticism. Now, when you haven't had a winning season in 15 years, and haven't made the postseason in 25, some of that has to be expected. What has surprised me is the seemingly widespread perception that the National League Central is a weak division. Could this really be true? I didn't think so. After all, this is the division with the defending world champions, the team with the best record in baseball, the biggest off-season free agent spenders, and a team that was in the World Series only two years ago.

The Cardinals, Cubs, Astros and Brewers were all considered to be playoff contenders. The Reds and Pirates have a few more holes, but most people expected them to be competitive as well. That doesn't sound like a weak division, but things don't always play out like they should. So, how have they performed on the field? Here are the current division standings, with each team's record against other divisions:

Not too many games have been played yet, but things look about where I would expect them. The top teams are over .500 and the bottom teams are a bit under .500. Combined, this gives us a 21-21 record in non-divisional games. Not really much of a sample, but .500 record against teams from other, supposedly stronger divisions isn't too bad. Let's see how the NL Central's non-divisional record stacks up with the rest of baseball:

So, if you go purely by wins and losses (and why not?), the NL Central is right in the middle. Unlike the divisions behind them in these standings, the NL Central does not have a terrible team dragging them down. The current last-place team, Cincinnati, is tied with Colorado for the best record of any last-place team.

I'll admit that it's still early in the season, but so far, the teams of the NL Central as a whole have been better than a lot of people give them credit for. The Brewers probably won't be a .700 team all season, but the Cardinals haven't played their best yet, the Cubs are just starting to play up to their potential, and the Astros will probably contend for a playoff spot, just as they have for the past 6 years.

This saturday, relegation-threatend Fulham host Liverpool in what is always one of the toughest fixtures of the season. Throughout the season, defense has been a clear weakness, particularly the centre-backs. Nine different pairings have seen time so far, and like many supporters, I have had difficulty keeping track of which ones are most effective.

For the most part, centre-backs are not relied upon for their offense. You may see them go forward for set pieces, or make long passes up to a forward, but for now I'm going to ignore the offensive aspect of their game. In most sports, players with a defense-only role are measured by how many "points" they allow per game. In baseball, a pitcher's earned-run average tells us how many runs he would allow over 9 innings. A hockey goaltender's goals-against average tells us how many goals he allows over 60 minutes of play. In football, similar statistics are kept for goalkeepers, but why can't we judge centre-backs the same way?

I went through each of Fulham's matches, looked at which centre-back pair (or in some cases, pairs) played, how many minutes, and how many goals conceded. I then added up the numbers for each pairing, divided the goals against by minutes played, and multiplied this number by 90 minutes. Here are the totals:

Ian Pearce has been effective, but may not play again this season

Elliot Omozusi is a good prospect, but a 66-minute sample is obviously not enough to name a player to the starting XI. The second pairing, Carlos Bocanegra and Ian Pearce, is more intriguing. Although they haven't played as many minutes together, the pair has been extremely effective, and with a GAA much lower than any other pairing. Their three full matches together were all in March, against Aston Villa, Wigan, and Pompey. Perhaps even more impressive is the number of shots allowed - opponents managed only 28 shots in those 3 games.

Unfortunately, we may not see this combination again. Ian Pearce has been out for several weeks now with a foot injury. physioroom.com lists his expected return date as May 5th, but even if he is healthy by then, it will take some time to get him up to match fitness.

Eliminating all of Pearce's pairings, the clear choice for Saturday's matchup with Liverpool becomes Carlos Bocanegra and Philippe Christanval. This pair, who helped Fulham to a clean sheet in one-third of their matches this season, has been considerably more effective than the next-best option of Christanval and Zat Knight. Lately, Bocanegra has seen time filling in for the injured Franck Queudrue at left-back, but Liam Rosenior was used previously, and his pace may be more useful at that position. Sliding Rosenior from the right side to the left also opens up a spot for Moritz Volz, a solid two-way player who brings a more attacking presence to the position.

I didn't include full-backs in this analysis for a couple reasons. First, full-backs are expected to get forward in attacks a lot more than centre-backs, so judging them solely on goals conceded wouldn't be a fair assessment. Second, and this just happens to be the case for Fulham, the team's options at the position aren't nearly as great. Liam Rosenior has had a majority of the starts at right-back, and Franck Queudrue has seen most of the time on the left. With Queudrue's injury, Rosenior had initially shifted over to the left side to make room for Volz, the only other Premiership-experienced right-back on the squad.

Here's my back line for Saturday:

LB: Rosenior
CB: Bocanegra
CB: Christanval
RB: Volz

The way I see it, Fulham has 5 players vying for 4 spots: Bocanegra, Christanval, Knight, Rosenior, and Volz. Of these, Zat Knight is the inferior player, and should remain on the bench. To accommodate for the rest of the players, Rosenior should move to left-back, allowing Bocanegra to play along side Christanval in the middle.

Now entering his 11th season, Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Geoff Jenkins has been with the club longer than any other player. He ranks in the top 10 in most offensive categories, plays excellent defense, and is considered to be a fan favorite. After a hot start in 2007, and a $9 million club option in his contract for 2008, it would appear that the Brewers have one of their outfield spots set for the next two years.

Geoff Jenkins reacts after being told that Dontrelle Willis will not start tomorrow

If I were managing a major league club, I would expect above-average offensive production from my corner outfielders. Being low on the defensive spectrum, left and right field are among the few places where you can stash a great hitter without having to worry too much about how fat and slow they are. That said, it's not unreasonable to expect a .750 OPS hitter out there every day. While Jenkins has consistently hit like an All-Star against righties (.297/.366/.511 AVG/OBP/SLG since 2004), he's hit like Craig Counsell against lefties (.211/.307/.368).

If a manager could predict which days a player will be great, which days he will go 0-5 with 3 Ks, and adjust the lineup accordingly, that manager would be on his way to a championship in no time. While it's impossible to predict what each player is going to do, it's very easy to say that Geoff Jenkins will probably struggle if a left-handed pitcher is starting for the opposing team. In a season, an everyday starter should face left-handed pitching somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the time. That gives us around 40 games a year in which Jenkins will be below average. Given the high availability of right-handed hitters who hit lefties well but struggle against righties, there's little reason to start a below-average hitter in those 40 games.

Out of last season's free agent outfielders, all players who will make over $5 million this year can hit both lefties and righties for over .750 OPS (based on 3-year averages). All players under $5 million are significantly below average against one side, with the exception of Rondell White (who, at $2.750,000, is barely above the .750 level against righties and lefties).

Of these sub-$5 million platoon players, most of the best players come in at around $3-4 million/year, and Jenkins definitely fits in with this bunch. His .877 OPS vs righties is on the high side, and he is a younger than a lot of these guys, so you might be able to bump his value up to around $5 million. I'd be happy to pay Jenkins that much, but last year's free agent market shows that $9 million should get you an everyday player.

If Brewers do decline the option, who replaces him? The answer may already be on the roster. Gabe Gross has shown, in a smaller sample, that he can hit right-handed pitching well. Not as well as Jenkins, but Gross has room to improve. If Gross can hit .850 vs righties, I'd be happy to give him Jenkins' roster spot as lefty platoon corner outfielder. If not, someone like Trot Nixon, Cliff Floyd, Ryan Klesko or even Jose Guillen may be options for under $5 million.

Ideally, Bill Hall and Corey Hart will emerge as everyday players, since both are very capable of hitting above average against lefties and righties. That leaves 1 position, and 3 more outfield roster spots (assuming the team carries 5 outfielders) to fill it. I'll be looking at this situation a bit more closely as the season progresses, as this may be the biggest decision the Brewers face in this coming off-season.

Last year, Brian Roberts had a wonderful roid-infested season for the Baltimore Orioles. Never mind the fact that he only started hitting after Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro joined the team. I'm sure he's clean, I mean hey, he's white and he's (s)crappy! I'm sure Brady Anderson (1996 Version) would be very proud.

Cleveland Indians DH Travis Hafner was on the ESPN radio' Mike & Mike this morning. Before interviewing the Vin Diesel lookalike, one of the Mikes mentioned that he came out of nowhere to be an AL MVP candidate last year. Never mind that he was only the BEST FUCKING HITTER IN BASEBALL THAT WASNT ON ROIDS (or Denver, Colorado) the year before. Then, in 2005, Hafner had the second best OPS in the American League, behind only Gayrod. Usually I make fun of "underrated" players, but this guy seriously deserves some credit.

Brady Anderson would be proud of Roberts' 2005 performance

Who the fuck is Chris Shelton? Oh yeah, he's some crappy fatass who can hit Royals pitching. Move along, nothing to see here. Maybe one day people will mistake him for Todd Helton and buy his baseball cards by accident.

I think the Mariners are going to be good this year. Yeah, I know, Ichiro and Richie "I'm too" Sexson are their only good players, but I really think the rest of the lineup has a decent chance to be average.

The Brewers are really good. Ben Sheets and Doug Davis are two of the best pitchers in baseball. Chris Crapuano, Tomokazu Ohka and David "W" Bush are all very good. Every day will be a tough matchup for opposing teams. JJ Hardy will be the first gay All-Star since Mike Piazza. Geoff "Swing Harder" Jenkins is looking like the same player who hit .332/.401/.623 after the all-star break last season, and is my darkhorse MVP candidate. Carlos Lee, while overrated, is still a legit 30 HR/100 RBI guy. The rest of the lineup, including Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Corey Koskie, Damian Miller, and Brady Clark, are all above average at their respective positions. Future Hall of Famer Corey "Guy in Shades" Hart and super-utility man Bill Hall lead what may be the deepest bench in the majors.

Anyone remember that movie The Fan? Man I hate John Kruk. I'm glad DeNiro killed him. It would have been better if he would have killed Kruk AND Barry Roids, but really, how can I complain?

To round out this post, here are my picks for the MLB ALL (S)CRAPPY TEAM:

C Jason Kendall

1B Jeff Conine

2B Craig Counsell

SS David Eckstein

3B Chone Figgins

LF Scott Podsednik

CF Brady Clark

RF Lew Ford

P Jamie Moyer

These guys know how to hustle. They play the game the way its meant to be played. They're the grittiest, scrappiest, hardest-working battlers this side of Derek Jeter. And they are all crappy white guys. No offense to token black guy Chone Figgins, you're a true gamer as well. INTANGIBLES.

At the half-way point of the season, the Kansas City Royals are, once again, in last place. Although I have only watched about three innings of Royals baseball this season before getting bored and switching to another game, I feel that I am more than qualified to grade the team's performance.

The "Hitters"

C - John Buck
Spent the first half of last year 3rd on Houston's organizational depth chart, blocked by heavy hitters Brad Ausmus (.248/.306/.325) and Raul Chavez (.210/.256/.259). His opportunity arose when the Astros somehow managed to trade him and some crappy pitcher for Carlos Beltran. Now he's a crappy catcher for a crappy team in the majors.
Grade: E+

1B/RF - Matt Stairs
You know you're in good shape when you have Matt Stairs hitting cleanup. Whoa, I just put "Matt Stairs" and "in good shape" in the same sentence. Its funny because he's really a fat guy.
Grade: C+

2B - Ruben Gotay
Ruben performed well enough in AA last year to earn a promotion to Kansas City. Apparently, even the Royals management considers themselves to be a AAA team.
Grade: C

SS - Angel Berroa
Still trying to regain his 2003 Rookie of the Year form. However, unless they legalize roids quick, the Royals are stuck with the new Pat Listach.
Grade: D-

3B - Mark Teahen
Rounding out the Royals' AAA infield is Moneyball hero Mark Teahen. I do believe he'll become a decent player, but the Royals will have traded him for prospects by then.
Grade: D+

LF - Terrence Long
The only thing more awesome than Matt Stairs batting cleanup is Terrence Long batting third.
Grade: D

CF - David DeJesus
Finally, something for Royals' fans to get excited about - DeJesus has the potential to become a mediocre major league outfielder.
Grade: C

RF - Emil Brown
Career minor leaguer Brown has come out of nowhere to put together a pretty good year, so far. Imagine how bad the Royals will be when he returns to earth and is back to his .650 OPS self.
Grade: B

DH/1B - Mike Sweeney
He's declined a bit since the roid crackdown, but is still a legitimate major leaguer. Could go down in history as the Royals' best hitter since Bob "The Hammer" Hamelin. That is, if they don't trade him for some overrated Yankee prospect first.
Grade: B-

Throwers

RHP - Jose Lima
In his second time around with the Royals, he's actually managed to be even worse than before. Plus he has herpes now.
Grade: F-

RHP - Runelvys Hernandez
One of the bright spots in the rotation, Hernandez has at times approached average. He should get better as the season moves along, as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
Grade: C+

RHP - Zack Greinke
Performed well as a rookie in 2004 after being rushed to the majors. Too bad he sucks now. I don't know why he sucks but I'm sure he's trying hard. Maybe its because the Royals forgot they have a AAA team. He's pretty good in MVP 2005 so thats a plus.
Grade: C-

RHP - DJ Carrasco
He's actually performed well this season in the Royals rotation. I'll bet he's just really lucky.
Grade: B+

LHP - JP Howell
Oh Royals, who WON'T you rush to the majors?
Grade: F+

Conclusion

The Royals should probably just switch over to AAA and be done with it, since that seems to be the direction team management is taking them. Omaha must be jealous.